by Tucker Davey
Scientists know that the planet is warming, that humans are causing it, and that we’re running out of time to avoid catastrophic climate change. But at the same time, their estimates for future global warming can seem frustratingly vague — best-case scenarios allow decades to solve the energy crisis, while worst-case scenarios seem utterly hopeless, predicting an uninhabitable planet no matter what we do.
At the University of Exeter, some researchers disagree with these vague boundaries. Professors Peter Cox, Chris Huntingford, and Mark Williamson co-authored a recent report in Nature that argues for a more constrained understanding of the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide. In general, they found that both the worst-case and best-case scenarios for global warming are far more unlikely than previously thought.
Their research focuses on a measure known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) — defined as “the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2.”